Particularly high warming has been observed over eastern Europe, Scandinavia and at eastern part of Iberian Peninsula. The year 2020 was the warmest year in Europe since the instrumental records began according to all datasets used, with the range of anomaly between 2.51☌ and 2.74☌ above the pre-industrial levels. The mean annual temperature over European land areas in the last decade was 1.94 to 2.01☌ warmer than during the pre-industrial period. Įurope is warming faster than the global average. These scenarios assume a drastic reduction in emissions in the coming decades and the decline of CO 2 emissions to zero and subsequently negative net emissions around the year 2050 (scenario SSP1-1.9) or around 2080 (scenario SSP1-2.6). The only scenarios with a chance to stay within the limits established by the Paris Agreements are SSP1-1.9 with projected warming of 1.0–1.8☌ and SSP1-2.6 with ranges between 1.3 to 2.4☌ till the end of the 21 st century compared to pre-industrial levels. Global temperatures are projected to increase by 2.1-3.5☌ above pre-industrial levels under SSP2-4.5 and by 3.3-5.7☌ under SSP5-8.5 by the end of the 21 st century. Without significant efforts to curtail emissions, the increase in global temperature will continue rapidly, and even accelerate. The observed warming up to now already amounts to more than half of the maximum 2☌ increase that would be compatible with the Paris Agreement.Ĭlimate modelling has been used to estimate future climate change for different emissions scenarios and socio-economic pathways underlaying these scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP). To prevent serious environmental, economic and societal impacts of climate change, all signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) committed in the 2015 Paris Agreement to limiting global temperature increase to well below 2☌ above pre-industrial levels by 2050 and to pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5☌. Anthropogenic activities, particularly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, are largely responsible for this warming. All temperature datasets used here place the year 2021 as one of the six warmest years on record, with anomaly ranges between 1.09☌ and 1.16☌ above pre-industrial levels. In this period, global temperature has risen faster than in any other 50-year period over at least 2000 years, with the past 7 years (2015–2021) being the warmest on record. The rate of increase has been particularly high since the 1970s at about 0.2☌ per decade.
Global annual near surface temperature has been rising steadily since the end of the 19 th century. Trends in global temperature are an important indicator of the magnitude of climate change and its possible impacts.
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